This page focuses on the Single and Multi-fund portfolios,  see the  Fidelity Select page for a review of its 2002 performance.  2003 Year-to-date performance for the model portfolios can be seen on the Weekly Update page. 

1. 2002 Summary

2. 2002 Review Reports

3. 2002 Rank Review

4. 2002 Model Portfolio Review 

2002 Summary        

Even with positive gains for the year, returns for the Fund-Track model portfolios in 2002 were a little disappointing, and disturbing by the amount of trades that were triggered.  Both model portfolio returns lagged behind their average returns over the previous three years, with many more trades made than normal.  This was primarily the result of a market environment in which lacked sustained momentum in any sector/asset class/international region.  There was a lot of minor activity that would surface and then die.  Unlike 2001 where international and then value funds were the place to be despite a down market, nothing took hold in 2002.  Instead many sectors made brief moves only to fade quickly, resulting in numerous short-lived trades in Fund-Track.  Fund-Track excelled in the 1st and 3rd quarters, and suffered in the 2nd and 4th quarters.  Performance dipped in both of those quarters as market conditions changed dramatically in each. The best trade for the year was for the Matthews Korea fund which returned 21%, while the worst trades were into the T Rowe Price Japan fund and Wasatch Global technology fund (both losses of 7.5%). In each portfolio there were more losing trades then winning ones, but losses were much smaller then the gains. The trading rules designed to help limit losses and let profits run seemed to work pretty well in this respect.

In looking at the 2 underperforming quarters: The market started dropping in mid May, and it took the model portfolios a while to find new strength among bear market and bond funds. These moves paid off in the 3rd quarter as substantial gains were made. At the close of the 3rd quarter the model portfolios reached their peak for the year.  At this point the Single Fund Portfolio was up 38.6% and the Multi-fund up 20.6% while at the same time the Nasdaq index was down -38.5%.

In the 4th quarter market conditions again reversed and although rising did not establish a strong trend in any particular area as differing sectors rose and then faded. This caused churning which resulted in poorer performance. These kinds of conditions were not optimal for Fund-Track as it looks for sustained mid length price moves. Seven trades were made in the year for the Single fund portfolio 4 of them in the 4th quarter, which is substantially above its average amount of 4 per year. The Multi-Fund portfolio made 17 trades for the year, also far above its average of 10 for previous years.

On the bright side, the model portfolios though down for the year relative to their averages over the last few years still turned in performances much better then the market averages.

Back To Top

2002 Review Reports        

Fund-Track Rank for December 31, 2002--PDF

This PDF file shows the 2002 year end Fund-Track rank. 

Fund-Track Funds, by Total Return  2002--PDF

This report displays all Fund-Track funds by return for 2002.  The gold funds had the best return for 2002, specifically the Gabelli Gold fund (GOLDX) with a year end return of 87.2%.  These were followed primarily by bear market and bond Funds.  Some international funds particularly in the Eastern Europe and Asia regions had decent returns as well.  The average Fund-Track fund returned -11.5% for the year.  175 funds of the 197 (89%) of Fund-Track funds performed better then the Nasdaq market index  (- 30.5%).  30 funds finished with positive returns for the year (15%).  The poorest performer was the Firsthand Technology fund (TVFQX) which dropped 56.15% for the year. This was followed closely by a host of other  technology and telecommunications funds.      

Fund-Track Funds, by Fund Family  2002 - PDF

This report displays all 200 funds broken up by fund family.   

Fund-Track Funds, by Fund Type 2002 --PDF

This report shows how the different asset classes, sectors and international regions (Fund-Types) within Fund-Track performed for the year.  The following table below summarizes, the average 2002 return for each fund type. 

Quarterly Performance

1st Quarter - During the first quarter gold and  international funds performed well and produced positive gains.   Small cap value funds started off strongly but faded near the end of the quarter.  The top industrial sector for the quarter (ex gold) was natural resources reflecting the run-up in oil prices late during the quarter.  Real estate also had a good run as a result of investors fleeing there because of an unstable and seemingly unpredictable market.  At the bottom for the quarter (as was the same for most of last year) were growth funds and the health, technology and telecom sectors.

2nd Quarter - In the 2nd Quarter gold funds were again the top gainers as the market started sliding down midway through the quarter in May.  The only other positive gains in this quarter came from the  Real Estate sector (from 7.59% to 12.08% YTD)  Japan (from 1.16% to 4.96%) and Bonds (from -1.09% to 1.33%).  All other fund-types lost ground in the quarter, particularly in the technology and telecom sectors.  International funds (ex Japan) which did well in the previous quarter, tanked in this quarter.

3rd Quarter - Gold sector funds performed well again as market continued its slump from last quarter.  Some Bear market funds were added  to Fund-Track this quarter and was the only other area in addition to Bond funds where positive gains were made. All other fund-types lost ground considerably in the quarter. 

4th Quarter - Technology and Telecom Funds were big winners in the early part of the 4th quarter as the market rallied back until the beginning of December.  They gave back some gains the last few weeks of the year  Gold funds reemerged at year end.  Internationally, the Latin American region made substantial gains.

Back To Top

2002 Rank Review        

Quarterly Analysis

1st Quarter - Other then gold, small cap value and international funds led the way from the start of the year.  Natural resource sector funds started appearing within the top 20% of funds by about mid February and at the top by mid March replacing some of the small cap value funds.  Real estate sector funds made their appearance in the top 20% by late February.   Natural resource funds made their way to the top by the beginning of March. 

2nd Quarter -  The 2nd quarter started off well for Fund-Track as International funds continued to show good strength.  Natural resource funds doing well also added to gains being made.   International funds started to lose strength and then drop sharply in mid May at the time the market as a whole started turning down.  This trend continued through the end of the quarter.  The downturn turned very broad and dragged just about everything down with it leaving bond funds and the one short fund (Potomac US Short) at the top.  Real estate funds also held their gains and thus rose to the top of the ranks.

3rd Quarter - The slump continued into this quarter, as Short and Bond funds held the top spots the entire quarter.  Some short spurts of isolated activity in different sectors emerged including Real Estate, Biotechnology, Technology and Telecommunications.  Funds from these areas rose briefly to or near to the top but then faded quickly as none were able to sustain a solid trend.   

4th Quarter - A rally finally got under way a couple of weeks into the quarter initially led by healthcare sector funds which rose to the top for a couple of weeks.  They faded quickly replaced by technology and telecom funds.  This rally lasted into the last part of November at which point the Technology funds started to drop off exhibiting week price strength.  By the end of the year Gold funds were again at the top followed by funds from the energy, natural resources, and utilities sectors.  

Back To Top

2002 Fund-Track Model Portfolio Review        

* 3rd Quarter ending as of Friday September 27th for Fund-Track.

The 2 PDF files below document all the transactions the model portfolios made during the year

Fund-Track Single Fund Model Portfolio 2002 Return PDF

Fund-Track Multi-Fund Model Portfolio 2002 Return PDF

1st Quarter - Both model portfolios started the year with technology funds held from the small rally at the close of 2001 but quickly traded into international funds and held them for most of the first quarter.  The Single Fund portfolio held the Matthews Korea fund from Jan 11th until the end of the quarter concluding with a 23.9% gain over a single trade.  The Multi-Fund portfolio made a trade into an energy sector fund near the end of the quarter and ended up 10%.  

2nd Quarter - Both Model portfolios began the quarter well until the market started sliding in May.  Both portfolios escaped a good deal of the decline by trading into Bond and Bear Market funds.  The Single Fund portfolio started heading down with the rest the market until a trade was triggered to a Bear Market fund (Potomac Short, PSPSX).  This portfolio ended the quarter still up 17.6% for the year on 1 more trade. The Multi-Fund portfolio's return rose and peaked on May 3rd at +17% while the Nasdaq was down - 17.3% at that time.  It then took big hits with the international funds it was holding (particularly the Japan fund) and eventually ended the quarter holding 2 bond funds and a short fund.  The multi-fund portfolio ended the quarter a YTD return of 5.7%.  With half the year over, The single fund portfolio still had only executed 2 trades, while the multi-fund 6. 

3rd Quarter -  Both model portfolios had impressive quarters despite a market still in decline.   The Single Fund held the Potomac fund until August 9th for good gains and found further strength in the Amer Century 2025 BTTRX bond fund.  This move played out nicely in a slumping market as bonds continued to rally.  This portfolio ended the quarter with a +37.8% YTD gain on 1 trade.  The Multi Fund portfolio found good strength in the Short and then bond funds that it held going into the quarter as well .  This portfolio's performance improved to 20.6% for the YTD at the end of the quarter.  The Dow Jones Industrials in this quarter dropped from -7.8% to -23.2%.  5 New funds were added in August to try and improve Fund-Track's performance in down Markets.  They included 2 new bear market funds a couple of international bond funds.    

4th Quarter - Fund-Track performance in this quarter suffered as an inordinate number of trades were triggered in indeterminate market conditions.  The single fund portfolio's performance dropped to 27.9% for the year as successive losing trades were made into different sectors (Healthcare, Technology, Energy) After making just 3 trades the entire year, this quarter triggered 4 trades for a total of 7 for the year.   The Multi-fund portfolio had the same problems as Its performance dropped to 7.7% for the year end over 7 trades.  Both portfolios were in Bear market and Bond funds as the quarter started, but as a rally kicked off in a sharp lurch upward, these funds dipped quickly.  Trades in both portfolios were initially made into healthcare funds which were not able to sustain any gains.  They were sold at losses into technology funds which did well into the beginning of December, and then faded quickly triggering more trades into the energy to end the year. 

This quarter although improving the market overall substantially did not bode well for Fund-Track as the market lurched forward through different rotating sectors which caused minor moves that didn't pan out.   No move in each sector was strong enough to sustain a good trend. This caused churning (short -lived trades) which resulted in higher then normal trading and poorer performance.  These kinds of conditions are not optimal for Fund-Track as it looks for sustained mid length price moves.   

Back To Top

 Copyright 2003 (Fund-Track) All rights reserved.                                                               Contact:  Jeff@fund-track.com